21.08 Challenging the GenCost report on the cost of intermittent energy. 100% RE with firming could cost over $400 per MWhour
Purpose. To provide a more accurate estimate of comparative costs than the CSIRO GenCost study that is being used as a basis for energy policy and planning.
Background.
The aim of energy policy is to provide affordable and reliable electricity with reduced emissions. We have been assured that this can be achieved by replacing coal and perhaps gas with wind and solar power.
The people of Australia will pay a bitter price if these assurances are based on false assumptions and wishfull thinking.
The CSIRO GenCost study supports the push for intermittent energy because it concludes that wind and solar power are now cheaper than coal, even taking into account the cost of providing reliable power to bridge the valleys (the windless nights)
21.07 Intermittent solar and wind power can DISPLACE coal but cannot REPLACE it
Purpose: To explain that unreliable energy from the sun and the wind is not sustainable as a replacement for conventional power sources (coal, gas and hydro).
Increasing the penetration of unreliable energy from the wind and the sun into the electricity supply can make coal power stations uneconomic and drive them out of business but cannot replace them.
Background
All the states and the Commonwealth government are aiming for net zero emissions from the electricity sector.
Significant progress has apparently been made towards that target with wind and solar power penetration above 20%. On good days the penetration approaches 50% for some time and for some very short periods in South Australia it has been 100%.
We can boast that we lead the
21.06 Short-term fluctuations in the supply of wind power
May 2021
Purpose. To signal that short-term fluctuations in the wind supply will create more problems for grid control as the installed wind capacity increases.
Background. As long as we have enough conventional power capacity to satisfy our needs, the vagaries of solar and wind power do not threaten the supply, just the stability in the grid.
It was known from the start that wind inputs would be intermittent but there was an expectation that the supply would become more even as the number and geographical extent of windfarms increased.
In 2012 Paul Miskelly published the first major analysis of the system with 2GW of installed capacity and he warned that the problem of wind droughts and rapid fluctuations in the wind supply
21.05 Firming Wind Farms with Pumped Hydro
April 2021
Purpose. To explain that pumped hydro is not a feasible method to “firm” or support the intermittent energy from wind farms.
Background. The NSW Roadmap towards green energy includes a number of Renewable Energy Zones with wind farms to substitute for the coal fired power stations that are expected to close by 2035.
Critical Issues.
Wind droughts. There are frequent and prolonged “wind droughts” when there is next to no wind across SE Australia for many hours and even days at a time.
Firming. To maintain the supply of power that is required to match demand, the intermittent input from the wind has to be firmed, that is, supported by “dispatchable” power from reliable sources that can be switched on
21.04 Firming Wind Farms with Batteries
March 2021
Purpose. To explain that battery storage is not a feasible method to “firm” or support the intermittent energy from wind farms.
Background. The NSW Roadmap towards green energy includes a Renewable Energy Zone in New England with a capacity of 8GW that matches the current capacity of all the wind farms in SE Australia combined.
Critical Issues.
Wind droughts. There are frequent and prolonged “wind droughts” when there is next to no wind across SE Australia for many hours and even days at a time.
Firming. To maintain the supply of power that is required to match demand, the intermittent input from the wind has to be firmed, that is, supported by “dispatchable” power from reliable sources that can be switched on as